Philosophy

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I.   It ain't easy. If it were...

...managers would last longer than one cycle. Investing is hard. And people don't like to be wrong. Lack of willingness to be wrong is what drives most [aspiring] investors mad, or broke. Be wary of those who pretend it's easy or have quick answers for every question.

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II.  Respect what you don't know...

...because it's more than what you do. Overconfidence, arrogance, and silky smooth persuasion - each of these are virtually incompatible with long-term investment success. Investing requires a constant, healthy respect for the unknown.

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III. Understand Value...

...because there's no other way. Every investment is based on a thesis - a premise and linkage of assumptions - that the price of something will be more in the future than it is today. Hence, our efficacy is a matter of the quality of our decisions. And our decisions are a function of the quality of our process.  

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Investment Principles

• Long-term sustainable investment success is the result of continuously enhancing a systematic, probabilistic, and asymmetric decision-making process; combined with avoiding risks that could (or will eventually) lead to collapse.

• All investment decisions are a function of expected returns. Expected returns are a function of (1) the estimated value above the current price, (2) the probability of being right [or wrong], and (3), most importantly, magnitude of gains if one is correct vs. severity of losses if one is wrong.

• Markets are inherently complex and emotionally and intellectually challenging.

• One must be able and willing to be wrong and, in fact, look forward to those occurrences; understanding them as useful learning opportunities and an essential component to long-term superior results.

• One cannot expect to "win" with every investment or beat the market every period. Seeking to do so is futile.

• Use short-term price movements to your advantage, rather than the other way around.